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Population Mortality effects of CoVid19

Posted Wednesday, 1 April 2020

I have made calculations of the overall effect on population mortality of the deaths reported so far for four countries. The results are in tables accessible from the following link: http://drive.google.com/open?id=1viuXekGeZdGnB65oWmhTy0qroZx0UTEx

South Korea: This country is well through its pandemic stage. New cases are still emerging but are relatively low. Unless there is another outbreak it looks like the current reported deaths might be about 80% of what is likely to emerge. 67% of the deaths were over age 70. No deaths occurred below age 30. Increase in Population mortality rates in any age group is 0.1% or less.

Korea was primed for swift action on a pandemic having been hit hard by MERS previously. The following is a link to an excellent BBC audio program which shows how a big brother high tech country can swing into action. http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csythk

Italy: Italy’s closed cases are only 25% of total cases and although new cases look to have plateaued they are still quite high. 84% of deaths are in over 70 age groups. In the 70 to 79 age group the deaths equate to about 6% of what would be expected from normal Australian mortality.

Spain: Spain is in a similar position to Italy with new cases and deaths appearing to have plateaued but still at a high level. Proportion in the over 70 age groups is identical to Italy at 84%. It is noted that both Spain and Italy (and Australia) are aged countries. For these three countries the Aged Dependency Ratios in 2018 (over 65s divided by ages 15 to 64) are Spain 52%, Italy 56%, Australia 53% compared to Korea 38%.

Australia: Deaths are very low so far. There is apprehension about where Australia is on the progression to peak deaths because of the extended period of overseas arrivals without quarantine or testing. Of the 19 deaths these calculations were based on, 95% were aged 70 or over.

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