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The January Effect

Picture this - January - Australians on annual holidays; Parties, barbecues, cricket, tennis; lazing at the beach; those who are working putting in minimal hours - and the Stockmarket goes up over 3 times the average monthly rise. It's called the January effect. But don't bet the house on it because in 18% of Januaries since 1875 the market has fallen.

The history so far as calculated from FinDem's data series is January month averages 1.8% increase in share prices and the all month average is 0.5%. Next highest month is July at 1.3% average. Suspicions are that it has something to do with thin trading after Australian and US financial year ends while institutions rule off the books and do balance sheets. You can see the full distribution of averages in Miscellaneous Charts.

In January 2006 the market rose 3.6% to give a 20.6% rise for the last 12 months.

Posted Monday, 6 February 2006

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